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These questions do not have dedicated mark schemes. To access the answers, use our M1 past papers archive to find the mark schemes of the papers the questions were taken from. The questions are dated (top right-hand corner) and question numbers are unchanged.Ch.2 KinematicsCh.3 CollisionsCh.3 DynamicsCh.4 StaticsCh.5 MomentsCh.6 Vectors
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Please note that past papers from the October and November 2020 examination series have summer dates on them. This is because the assessment material was reused from the cancelled summer 2020 examination series.
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This paper compares several linear trend break models of labor productivity. One empirical problem that arises when estimating trends in macroeconomic data is the influence of cyclical behavior on tests of trend breaks. Using various methods to correct for cyclical influences, this paper finds that a simple linear trend model with a small number of breaks aptly characterizes aggregate productivity. Moreover, this paper confirms previous research that has found that the aggregate productivity trend has not steepened in the 1990s. Econometrically, this paper shows the benefits of using nonparametric bootstrap methods. In particular, a phase-dependent moving block bootstrap method appears well suited to generate small-sample critical values to test for trend breaks in macroeconomic time-series.Do Stock Prices Follow Interest Rates or Inflation?By John E. Golob and David G. BishopRWP 96-13, December 1996
Market analysts often forecast changes in stock prices by comparing earnings-price ratios on stocks to nominal interest rates. This paper shows that stock prices have followed inflation more closely than interest rates over the last thirty years. This result has implications for recent stock valuations, because the spread between nominal interest rates and inflation has recently been above historic averages. That is, stock prices appear more overvalued when the earnings-price ratio is compared to nominal interest rates than when the earnings-price ratio is compared to inflation. Our result also helps explain the behavior of stock prices during the 1970s.The Responses of Prices at Different Stages of Production to Monetary Policy ShocksBy Todd E. ClarkRWP 96-12, December 1996
This paper examines the responses of prices at different stages of production to an explicitly identified demand shock: a monetary policy shock. The frameworks of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (1994, 1996) and Sims and Zha (1995b) are used to identify the policy shock as the innovation to the federal funds rate in a VAR. The adjustment of prices at different stages of production is examined by adding three different sets of prices to the basic VAR model: (a) the PPIs for crude materials, intermediate goods, and finished goods; (b) the newer industry-based PPIs of input and output prices for crude, primary, semifinished, finished, and final goods processors; and (c) the input and output price indexes for manufacturing industries constructed by Roberts, Stockton, and Struckmeyer (1994). The analysis shows that, at earlier stages of production, a monetary tightening causes input prices to fall more rapidly and by a larger amount than output prices. This finding would appear to be consistent with a model in which all price changes are subject to menu costs but some chain structure in production gives rise to prices at earlier stages of production moving more than prices at later stages.Transaction Costs in an Emerging Market: The Case of IndonesiaBy Catherine Bonser-Neal, David Linnan, and Robert NealRWP 96-11, December 1996
Despite the dramatic increase in the flow of funds to emerging stock markets, relatively little is known about the cost of transacting on these markets. This paper estimates the execution costs of trading on a representative emerging market stock exchange, the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX). We find that execution costs are affected by the difficulty of the trade, the size of the firm traded, and the broker executing the trade. Surprisingly, we find that execution costs on the JSX are only modestly higher than average execution costs in several non-U.S. developed stock markets. In addition, we find that trades initiated by foreigners have a much larger impact on the price than trades initiated by local investors. Since the impact is not reversed following the trade, this raises the possibility that foreign trades may signal future investment flows.
This paper examines the empirical relation between financial market development, as measured by the stock market, and gross private savings rates in 16 emerging markets over 1982-1993. With data from all 16 countries, there is evidence of a significant positive relation between savings and stock market size and liquidity. When countries with outlying values for the stock market measures are excluded, however, all significance disappears. The results suggest that we should not assume that a growing or deepening stock market will necessarily be associated with higher savings rates.
In this paper, we first specify a theoretical model of the term structure's response to federal funds rate target changes. The model considers not only the immediate response to target changes, but also the response in anticipation of a policy change. The model is then estimated over the 1974-79 and 1987-95 periods, and the model's restrictions cannot be rejected. The results suggest that policy changes have become more predictable since 1987, causing more of the target change to be reflected in market yields before the policy action is taken. The results also suggest that the economic shocks the Federal Reserve chooses to offset are very persistent, if not permanent.Monetary Policy Shocks and Price Stickiness: An Analysis of Price and Output Responses to Policy in Manufacturing IndustriesBy Joseph H. HaimowitzRWP 96-07, December 1996
This paper uses annual data on 450 SIC four-digit manufacturing industries obtained from the NBER Manufacturing Productivity Database to examine how manufacturing industries respond to unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate. The analysis proceeds in three stages. First, industry price and output responses to unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate are examined. Second, the effect of industry characteristics on these responses is analyzed. Finally, the paper assesses whether particular industry characteristics are associated with price rigidity or interest rate sensitivity. The results in this paper support the following conclusions. Durable good industries exhibit larger price and output responses to federal funds rate shocks than nondurable good industries. This suggests that durable good industries are more sensitive to interest rate shocks than nondurable good industries and is consistent with the observation that durable good industries are more cyclical than nondurable good industries. High concentration industries are found to exhibit smaller price responses and larger output responses to unanticipated changes in the federal funds rate than low concentration industries. Thus, price rigidity may be an important determinant of how high concentration industries respond to federal fund rate shocks. Industries with high inventory-to-sales ratios are associated with smaller price and output responses to interest rate shocks than industries with low inventory-to-sales ratios. This suggests that industries whose output is storable are able to smooth price and output responses to demand shocks through inventory adjustment.
This paper explores the instability in estimated money demand functions. Using a new data series on credit card usage, we evaluate the role of financial innovations in stabilizing the M1 demand function over three troubling episodes. We find that our measure of financial innovations improves the short-term predictive ability of the M1 demand function, but does not generate stable long-run elasticities. Structural instability remains even after accounting for seasonal adjustment, the turbulence in the second and third quarters of 1980, and an alternative transactions measure. Financial innovations are likely to have differential effects on the components of M1, and we estimate separate models for currency, demand deposits, other checkable deposits, and total deposits. Our financial innovations series continues to improve short-run predictions, and the currency demand equation is much more stable than the M1 equation. Lastly, we analyze the sluggish adjustment of money holdings as a source of structural instability. We argue that theory fails to identify the adjustment parameter, and establish that minor variations in this parameter lead to minor variations in the likelihood function but major variations in long-run elasticities. We conclude that financial innovations are a useful element in forecasting short-run money demand, but are not the primary cause of money demand instability, which stems from deeper problems with the basic specification. Modeling and estimating the components of M1 (and perhaps M2) appear promising directions for future research. 2b1af7f3a8